Sorry for the typos:

Here's my mostly pyhthonic model, actually it's done in sagecell.sagemath.org. Problem is, how do you predict the parameters alpha, probability of infection, and beta, probability of recovery?

My simulation is interactive in that you can change the values of alpha and beta. A higher alpha or lower beta will skew the infected curve so it peaks higher and sooner.

So how do we reduce alpha? We use vaccines we don't have. How do we increase beta? We use antivirals we don't have. All we can do now is stay home and stay apart to reduce alpha and flatten the infected curve!

Stay Healthy,

A. Jorge García