A simple probabilistic model for COVID-19

Hi! I've created a Jupyter notebook that presents a simple probabilistic model linking diseases (cold, flu, COVID-19) to symptoms (fever, cough): http://mybinder.org/v2/gh/piedenis/lea_mini_tutorials/master?filepath=Lea_CO VID19.ipynb Assuming that this model is accurate (which is probably not!), it allows you to answer questions like: What is the probability of having COVID-19 in the occurrence of fever but without cough? This model is programmed in Python, using Lea, a package dedicated to probabilistic programming (PP). Note that the goal is to let you discover PP and Bayesian reasoning, not to provide you usable/trustable figures (even if the calculations are plainly correct). Take care of you! Pierre Denis