Python should try to displace Java

[Brandon J. Van Every]

I'm going to make a number of points which I'm sure many people will object
to.  Feel free, but also try not to knee-jerk about them.  As someone who
programmed DEC Alpha in 1998, and who sees the sorry state of CPUs nowadays,
I can definitely say that better technology doesn't always win.  In fact, it
doesn't *usually* win.  Python needs to look to its strategic marketing and
product positioning if it expects to survive in the rough and tumble world
of mainstream industry.

Points to note:

- in 5 years, nobody will be doing significant amounts of new application
development in C++.  The writing is on the wall: garbage collection is
essential.  Any C++ code will be support and legacy libraries.

- Microsoft is already implementing said strategy across all levels of the
company today.  Microsoft developers don't do much C++ development anymore.
Various upcoming products are being written entirely in C#.

- The "higher level language" playing field is crowded: C#, Java, Perl, and
Python.  Mainstream industry does not need and will not make room for 4
higher level languages.  Any of these languages has to grow at some other
language's expense.

- Python will never displace C# on Windows.  It's Microsoft's home turf and
you can't fight directly with The Beast.  You will see UNIX boxes running
Python, not Windows boxes.

- Sun is about to die.  It has done nothing for anyone lately and has no
further tricks up its sleeve.

- Sun has failed to make Java live up to its claims of universality.  Java
is for all intents and purposes simply a widespread programming language,
not a portable computing environment.  Portable computing environments are,
in general, a pipe dream as long as Microsoft is around.  It will always be
Windows vs. open standards.

- Java is proprietary.  Python is open source.  Open Source is the best shot
that anyone has at competing with Windows.

- Perl is open source and sysadmins won't be giving it up any time soon.
Perl is optimal for their jobs, the capabilities of Python are a non-sell.

- Ergo, Java is the weakling of the litter for Python to attack.

- Alternately, if you look at this in real world marketing terms, Python is
the weakling of the litter that must defend itself.  I know that will make
various Python idealists upset, but that's the economic reality.  Merit
doesn't win in this game.  Java is the next weakest langauge so that's whose
lunch Python should try to eat.

- No, this isn't the appraisal of a Microsoftie who wants to set Python and
Java at each others' throats to conquer both.  :-)  I'm just offering a
realistic picture of what your options are, if you don't want to become a
"gee whiz, wasn't that nice!" technology.  Like I said, I've lived through
it already.  Don't talk to me about merit carrying the day.  Learn from
history, or you are doomed to repeat it.

-- 
Cheers,                         www.3DProgrammer.com
Brandon Van Every               Seattle, WA

20% of the world is real.
80% is gobbledygook we make up inside our own heads.