Xah Lee's Unixism

SM Ryan wyrmwif at tango-sierra-oscar-foxtrot-tango.fake.org
Tue Sep 14 04:50:40 CEST 2004

# However, to answer your question: How does regime change in Iraq help 
# avoid another 9/11...
# 	1) It removes one of the states that might consider sponsing such a 
# future attach.

Putting that in more mundane terms, if you walk around with loaded shotgun
and gut shoot anyone you think might look funny at you, you will be safer.
Ignores the possibility that the townsfolk might not like your attitude
and arrange an ambush followed by a hanging as needed.

# 	2) It removes a state with the expertise of producing (not developing) 
# WMD that might be used in such an attack.  We've found no WMD 
# stockpiles but we *have* found proof that Iraq retained the expertise 
# to produce WMD in the future.  We still don't know if there are stockpiles.

Leaving Israel, Iran, Pakistan, India, and Korea unmolested. There's a lot of
expertise _and_ material floating around in Russa. A lot of those experts
are now jobless with worthless pensions. If you want to talk about threats,
it would Russians exporting material and experts across their southern border.
That is a threat we can deal with: offer these people worthwhile pensions
to keep their mouths shut. Buy fission materials from Russia. Pay off Russia.
But we don't because that's too expensive.

# 	3) It demonstrates to other states in the region that they could have 
# a regime change in about a month's time if they allow themselves to be 
# in the position of being held accountable for any future attack. 
# Removing the Taliban was a much more ambiguous demonstration of this 
# since they had no real military and really weren't an organized state.

With what army do you propose to invade Syria and Iran and Sudan and Korea?
Taliban is regaining control in Afghanistan after the USA abandonned the
war on terrorism to seek oil profits. Iraq is a tar baby. Saddam Hussein
might be permanently out of the picture, but there's no reason yet to think
that if Iraq does somehow become a democracy it will be friendly to the USA.

# 	4) Look at a map of the middle east.  It provides us with a base of 
# operations in the center of the region.  We probably won't have to ask 
# for access to bases and airspace in future operations, which hopefully 
# will never have to happen.

A soveign Iraq has the right to demand the USA leave. Do you think Iraq
wants to become a target of Al Qaeda the way Saudi Arabia has been simply
for the honor of having USA soldiers in their country?

# 	5) It provides us with a second (ref: Afghanistan) shot at 
# establishing a pseudo-democracy in the region.

Why not start with Jordan and Egypt? Those governments are already friendly
to the USA and more suspectible to gentler persuasion than an invading
army. Because they aren't sitting on a sea of oil to make it worthwhile.
The Afghanistan central government is falling apart because the USA abandonned
it and never did the hard work of nation building there.

# 	6) It underscores that 9/11 should go into the "bad idea" category for 
# future planners of Islamic extremist operations.

Again only you and Dick Cheney believe Iraq had anything to do with
terrorism. The real terrorist are back in Afghanistan laughing their
butts off; they are safe today than two years ago because the USA
abandonned the war on terrorism. The only terrorist organisation that
had been operating in Iraq was in the northern fly zone outside of
Saddam's control. These same terrorists are causing so much trouble now.
These same terrorists the USA and Kurds could have dealt with a long
time, except the USA needed to have a terrorist organisation in Iraq
to provide a cause belli.

# Before you respond saying that it increases the number of potential 
# terrorists that might carry out an attack, that may or may not be so. 
# But for such an attack to be carried out requires organization and 
# resources not just a bunch of pissed off people.  It would require at 

The organisation was being dismantled. But now that the USA has abandonned
the war on terrorism for the quagmire in Iraq, terrorists are reorganising.
Ask Australians about their embassy remodelling.

# You are being naive.  Complain as loud as you like but there is no 
# question that the ability and demonstrated willingness to defend ones 
# self is the best deterrent to ever having to do so.

Iraq was never a threat to the USA. Al Qaeda is, and the USA has
abandonned the quest to end it or capture Osama bin Laden.

SM Ryan http://www.rawbw.com/~wyrmwif/
I'm not even supposed to be here today.

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