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[rurpy at yahoo.com]

On 05/12/2011 12:13 AM, Steven D'Aprano wrote:
>[snip]
> http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/2006/07/separating-programming-sheep-from-non-programming-goats.html
>
> Shorter version: it seems that programming aptitude is a bimodal
> distribution, with very little migration from the "can't program" hump
> into the "can program" hump. There does seem to be a simple predictor for
> which hump you fall into: those who intuitively develop a consistent
> model of assignment (right or wrong, it doesn't matter, so long as it is
> consistent) can learn to program. Those who don't, can't.

A later paper by the same authors...
(http://www.eis.mdx.ac.uk/research/PhDArea/saeed/paper3.pdf)

Abstract:
[...] Despite a great deal of research into teaching methods
and student responses, there have been to date no strong
predictors of success in learning to program.  Two years ago
we appeared to have discovered an exciting and enigmatic new
predictor of success in a 
first programming course. We now
report that after six experiments, involving more than 500
students at six institutions in three countries, the predictive
effect of our test has failed to live up to that early promise.
We discuss the strength of the 
effects that have been observed
and the reasons for some apparent failures of prediction.