Testing random
Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn
PointedEars at web.de
Sun Jun 7 16:09:31 EDT 2015
random832 at fastmail.us wrote:
> On Sun, Jun 7, 2015, at 15:29, Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn wrote:
>> Jussi Piitulainen wrote:
>> > Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn writes:
>> >> 8 3 6 3 1 2 6 8 2 1 6.
>> >
>> > There are more than four hundred thousand ways to get those numbers in
>> > some order.
>> >
>> > (11! / 2! / 2! / 2! / 3! / 2! = 415800)
>> Fallacy. Order is irrelevant here.
>
> Huh? The fact that order is irrelevant is exactly _why_ what he said
> _is_ relevant.
No. AISB, those sequences all have the same probability:
<http://www.teacherlink.org/content/math/interactive/probability/numbersense/misconceptions/representativeness.html>
<http://www.teacherlink.org/content/math/interactive/probability/numbersense/misconceptions/recency.html>
--
PointedEars
Twitter: @PointedEars2
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