Testing random
Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn
PointedEars at web.de
Wed Jun 10 13:03:43 EDT 2015
Jussi Piitulainen wrote:
> Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn writes:
>> Jussi Piitulainen wrote:
>>> Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn writes:
>>>> 8 3 6 3 1 2 6 8 2 1 6.
>>>
>>> There are more than four hundred thousand ways to get those numbers
>>> in some order.
>>>
>>> (11! / 2! / 2! / 2! / 3! / 2! = 415800)
>>
>> Fallacy. Order is irrelevant here.
>
> You need to consider every sequence that leads to the observed counts.
No, you need _not_, because – I repeat – the probability of getting a
sequence of length n from a set of 9 numbers whereas the probability of
picking a number is evenly distributed, is (1∕9)ⁿ [(1/9)^n, or 1/9 to the
nth, for those who do to see it because of lack of Unicode support at their
system]. *Always.* *No matter* which numbers are in it. *No matter* in
which order they are. AISB, order is *irrelevant* here. *Completely.*
This is _not_ a lottery box; you put the ball with the number on it *back
into the box* after you have drawn it and before you draw a new one.
> One of those sequences occurred. You don't know which.
You do not have to.
> When tossing herrings […]
Herrings are the key word here, indeed, and they are deep dark red.
> Code follows. Incidentally, I'm not feeling smart here.
Good. Because you should not feel smart in any way after ignoring all my
explanations.
> [nonsense]
--
PointedEars
Twitter: @PointedEars2
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