Create a forecast estimate updated with actuals weekly
Steven D'Aprano
steve at pearwood.info
Fri Apr 15 02:51:54 EDT 2016
On Fri, 15 Apr 2016 02:36 pm, Sayth Renshaw wrote:
> Hi
>
> Wondering if someone has this knowledge, and please forgive my maths
> expressions. If I want to estimate need results to achieve a goal at the
> end of a term updated weekly with real results how would I structure this?
I'm not really sure that this question has anything to do with Python. But
then I don't really understand the question -- you haven't explained what
you are trying to do. Remember, it might be clear to you, because you have
been working on the question and understand the background of where is
comes from. But to us it is a big mystery.
> So as an example to illustrate my thought process(which could be wrong)
> These are Bills results for the first to weeks.
>
> Bills Goal = 60% after 5 weeks.
60% of what?
> wk1 wk2 wk3 wk4 wk5
> Bill 54.5% 57.1%
What do these numbers represent? Where do they come from? How do they relate
to the goal of 60%?
> So say these are the results that get it to current.
You've mentioned two weeks. What is "current"?
> wk1 wk2
> get opp get opp
> 6 11 4 7
>
> So 6/11 etc
Where do these numbers come from? What do you mean "get" and "opp"?
> I am thinking to achieve this I then need to estimate an average
> opportunity rate rounded up. (11 + 7)/2 = 9 so if we had a 5 week term
>
> wk3 wk4 wk5
> get avgopp get avgopp get avgopp
> X 9 X 9 X 9
>
> So doing it manually I would discover Bill needs 6 out of 9 each week,
> which results in:
>
> sumget 28 0.622222222 result
> sumopp 45
Finally something I can understand! 28/45 == 0.62222... but why are you
dividing those numbers? Where do they come from? 3*6/9 == 2, not 28/45.
> But how do I structure this so that the new results when known for week 3
> update and adjust the following estimates?
I don't understand your question. You were able to perform a calculation to
get the result 28/45, so why don't you do the same calculation again (but
this time with three input numbers instead of two) to get the next result?
--
Steven
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