A simple probabilistic model for COVID-19
pie.denis at skynet.be
pie.denis at skynet.be
Thu Mar 19 16:05:47 EDT 2020
Hi!
I've created a Jupyter notebook that presents a simple probabilistic model
linking diseases (cold, flu, COVID-19) to symptoms (fever, cough):
http://mybinder.org/v2/gh/piedenis/lea_mini_tutorials/master?filepath=Lea_CO
VID19.ipynb
Assuming that this model is accurate (which is probably not!), it allows you
to answer questions like:
What is the probability of having COVID-19 in the occurrence
of fever but without cough?
This model is programmed in Python, using Lea, a package dedicated to
probabilistic programming (PP).
Note that the goal is to let you discover PP and Bayesian reasoning, not to
provide you usable/trustable figures (even if the calculations are plainly
correct).
Take care of you!
Pierre Denis
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