[Tutor] What's the best way to model an unfair coin?

Evert Rol evert.rol at gmail.com
Sun Oct 24 15:36:18 CEST 2010

> Actually, I used the unfair coin model as the simplest example of the
> kind of thing I want to do -- which is to model the USD->Yen exchange
> rate. I want the next quote to vary in a controlled random way, by
> assigning probabilities to various possible changes in the rate. See
> <http://tutoree7.pastebin.com/mm7q47cR>. So I assign probability 1/40
> to a change of plus or minus .05; 3/40 to .04; 5/40 to .03, etc.
> An analogy to this would be an unfair 6-sided die, with each side
> assigned probabilities slightly differing from 1/6 (but totaling 1, of
> course). I can't see off-hand how to apply the Evert-Steven-Alan
> solution to these, but is it possible? I'd just like a yes or no -- if
> yes, I'd like to try to work it out myself.

Yes, and in a very similar way.



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