[Tutor] What's the best way to model an unfair coin?
Richard D. Moores
rdmoores at gmail.com
Sun Oct 24 16:36:21 CEST 2010
On Sun, Oct 24, 2010 at 06:36, Evert Rol <evert.rol at gmail.com> wrote:
>> Actually, I used the unfair coin model as the simplest example of the
>> kind of thing I want to do -- which is to model the USD->Yen exchange
>> rate. I want the next quote to vary in a controlled random way, by
>> assigning probabilities to various possible changes in the rate. See
>> <http://tutoree7.pastebin.com/mm7q47cR>. So I assign probability 1/40
>> to a change of plus or minus .05; 3/40 to .04; 5/40 to .03, etc.
>> An analogy to this would be an unfair 6-sided die, with each side
>> assigned probabilities slightly differing from 1/6 (but totaling 1, of
>> course). I can't see off-hand how to apply the Evert-Steven-Alan
>> solution to these, but is it possible? I'd just like a yes or no -- if
>> yes, I'd like to try to work it out myself.
> Yes, and in a very similar way.
Thanks, Evert. I'm on it.
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